The Peloponnesian War by Donald Kagan

After the election in America last month, I decided to read The Peloponnesian War by Donald Kagan.  During that 30-year-long war from 431- 404 BCE Athens fell from the its place as the pre-eminent power and the leading democracy in the Eurasian world to a defeated country under a tyrannical oligarchy.  The oligarchy took over in 411 BCE.

Sparta finally won the war in 404 BCE, but allowed Athens to restore democracy.  Several years later the Spartan empire began to crumble. Athens held on to democracy for another 80 years until the region fell under the sway of Alexander the Great.  

I was interested in how Athens went from its dominant place under Pericles to defeat and ruin.  Pericles is so revered for his leadership in government and in battle that it was sad to read how his strategy of restraint early in the war lead to financial ruin, to plague by crowding people into the city walls, and to eventual defeat even at sea.  

For much of the war, both Athens and Sparta fought battles to keep their allies on their side or to punish allies that deserted them.  As I read about these shifting allegiances I thought of how rapidly the world is changing now.  

Bi-lateral alliances are the preference of tyrants. They want to make direct deals.  Only democracies make grand, durable alliances. But in a world falling into oligarchy and tyranny as we are now, grand alliances don't survive. 

Right now NATO exists and has expanded in the face of Russian invasion and tyranny.  NATO added Sweden and Finland. NATO currently includes Hungary and Turkey.  Can NATO survive with anti-democratic member states? When Syria collapses, Turkey will surely invade and try to take territory it claims as its own. Turkey will attack Syrian Kurds first. 

Kurds by their actions are our best ally in the region. We betrayed and abandoned them in 1991 and 2018. Will we do it again? 

I am currently living in Panama. In our hyper-connected world, I can watch the wars in Middle East and Ukraine on TV and my iPhone.  I can also get news from home about America's accelerating descent into oligarchy.  Rich, famous and shallow people will soon be in charge in Washington just as they were in Athens in 411 BCE when the oligarchy took over there. 

The hero of the restoration of democracy in Athens was the general Thrasybulus.  Will a great democratic leader emerge in the United States of America? Rome lost its Republic and remained under the rule of Caesars until its demise.  Either path is very possible. 

  

Sunken Sailboat in a Beautiful Bay: Relaxed Life in Panama

Above is bay I ride past along the Amador Causeway in Panama.  It's peaceful and beautiful with many different small boats.  

About halfway between the island at the end of the causeway and the city is this mast sticking out of the water maybe ten meters from the water's edge.  I learned the boat has been there for more than two years.   The harbormaster told the owner to anchor his boat in this place during a storm. The owner didn't like the spot but complied.  The boat sank.

The owner refused to salvage the boat. the dispute is still on going.  

This pelican now has a place to view the bay and swoop down for dinner.

The skyline is lovely here.

And the island.

For everyone. 

Watching Tank Porn in Panama: Fun, But Victory Happens Far from the Battlefield

 

All my life I have watched war movies.  Tactics look awesome on screens big and small.  As a kid, I loved tanks. By age 22, I was a US Army tank commander.  Tactics make great movies, but tactical battlefield videos, tank porn, are not the way to follow a war.  

Wars are won far from the battlefield.  The bigger the war, the more the outcome depends on the decisions, the beliefs, the hatreds, the prejudices of those with power.  

When Hitler declared war on America after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, the Nazi leader made the biggest mistake of his  horrible career.  Millions of Germans became dead people walking at that moment. They were just waiting for their particular B-17 Flying Fortress to reduce their home to rubble three years later.  

Currently, I am sharing a house in Panama with an enthusiastic follower of the Ukraine War.  My housemate is particularly fond of tank battle videos and was delighted to find I am a former tank commander.  I watched a few, but my interest waned quickly.  

As much as I love seeing Russian formations defeated, I know the war will be won or lost in diplomatic meetings and conferences with NATO nations that support Ukraine.  Sadly, clandestine agreements among the new Axis of  Evil: Russia, Iran, China, Turkey and Jihadi Arab countries with North Korea and Hungary as appendages, will also determine the outcome.

The bravery and sacrifice of the people and Ukraine is not enough by itself to defeat an enemy much greater in population with seemingly endless supplies of weapons.  Ukraine will win or lose based on support from allies--or not.  

The smoking wrecks of several Russian tanks hit by Ukrainian drones and direct fire delights me, but reports of Britain and Germany sending more weapons and support to Ukraine delights me more.  

Tank porn, like the other kind, can be exciting, but leaves the viewer with a limp feeling afterward, and nothing accomplished.  

Russian Embassy in my Panama Neighborhood

 The day after I returned to Panama we moved to a different AirBnB closer to Panama City in the Albrook area.  Less than a mile away on the road is the Russian Embassy.  It's a seven-story yellow building which our host says has seven stories underground. 

Today  I was riding in my Ukraine bike clothes, so I rode back and forth in front of the Russian Embassy then stopped to take some pictures and a selfie.

I'm sure they have plenty of security, but I saw no guards, guns, dogs or drones as I rode.  Across the road is a stream that runs past where I live.  Crocodiles live on the banks of the stream. Maybe part of the security team?

Down the hill from the embassy is a little Russian Orthodox Church. 

I'll be riding this way a lot in the next six months.  

Прибет Товариши!  

(Hello Comrades!) 

Back in Panama: Finding Better Roads

 

Today is the seventh day since I arrived in Panama.  After some very difficult rides back in August, I have found better roads and hope to find more.

Today I rode the Amador Causeway, a long straight smooth three-mile road that runs to an island in the Panama City harbor. The Panama City skyline is off to the east of the long roadway and bicycle path.  A beautiful ride on a sunny day.  

  I'm meeting new neighbors also.  A coati on the balcony.

An agouti who lives across the street.  

Ships in the harbor beyond the causeway.

On Sunday I rode about a third of the way across the country to the town of Chililibre.  Since I was last here, ten kilometers of the road between State Highways 4 and 9 were completely repaved.  The rolling mostly uphill stretch of road two of very smooth pavement. Still no shoulder, but the traffic is not as bad on Sunday.I had a delightful 50km ride up to Chililibre  and back down again.  

It's better, but still a place where I am always alert. 

 

Canvassing in the 21st Century

 

The losing political campaign is in the midst of a huge blame game.  One of the critics of the campaign spoke with derision about all the people knocking on doors.  "Who answers their door to talk to a stranger," he asked. He was right. 

People asked me how many minds I changed.  None.  My mission was to remind Democrats to vote, not to change the minds of Republicans. In part, that's because I talked to so few people. 

No one is outside in suburban neighborhoods.  And 9 out of 10 people don't answer the door.  As the election neared, the few people I talked to had already voted or had a plan to vote.  The people I talked to who had not voted or planned to vote did not know who to vote for.  Or did not plan to vote at all.  For these registered democrats both candidates were the same. Or voting was worthless.

I wrote several posts about the experience of canvassing, but the most important to the election result was Empty Streets.

If anything was going to convince people to vote, it was certainly someone on social media.  A canvasser is so 20th Century. Or maybe 19th. 

Peace is Easy to Break, Hard to Restore

 

If, on November 6, 2024, at 1 a.m Easter Standard Time Donald Trump had not won the election, our country would have been sliding toward civil war.  

The best predictor of a successful coup d'etat is a failed coup attempt.  If he had lost, Trump would have thrown the country into chaos. This time he would not make the mistakes he did the last time. He would be assured that the Republican-majority government in most of the swing states would sow enough doubt to throw the election into the House where, by the Constitutional rules, Trump has the advantage.  

Instead we have peace.  Trump won so he has no reason to lie about the results.  More importantly, he is effectively endorsing the election system--because it elected him.  

On the one hand, we will be governed by an old authoritarian wannabe on January 20, 2025.  

On the other hand, we did not fall into civil strife that could easily have led to violence beyond the control of any government.  

Once broken, peace is hard to restore, so I am glad we have peace.

I am also hopeful. Once Trump is gone--he is almost 80--his successor will not have flag-waving worshippers.  His successor will be just another politician to be criticized, doubted, and attacked. The Trump phenomena will not be repeated by JD Vance or Trump Jr. or Tucker Carlson.  Nobody will wave Tucker flags. 

It may not be for long.  But for now we have peace. I am thankful.