After the election in America last month, I decided to read The Peloponnesian War by Donald Kagan. During that 30-year-long war from 431- 404 BCE Athens fell from the its place as the pre-eminent power and the leading democracy in the Eurasian world to a defeated country under a tyrannical oligarchy. The oligarchy took over in 411 BCE.
Sparta finally won the war in 404 BCE, but allowed Athens to restore democracy. Several years later the Spartan empire began to crumble. Athens held on to democracy for another 80 years until the region fell under the sway of Alexander the Great.
I was interested in how Athens went from its dominant place under Pericles to defeat and ruin. Pericles is so revered for his leadership in government and in battle that it was sad to read how his strategy of restraint early in the war lead to financial ruin, to plague by crowding people into the city walls, and to eventual defeat even at sea.
For much of the war, both Athens and Sparta fought battles to keep their allies on their side or to punish allies that deserted them. As I read about these shifting allegiances I thought of how rapidly the world is changing now.
Bi-lateral alliances are the preference of tyrants. They want to make direct deals. Only democracies make grand, durable alliances. But in a world falling into oligarchy and tyranny as we are now, grand alliances don't survive.
Right now NATO exists and has expanded in the face of Russian invasion and tyranny. NATO added Sweden and Finland. NATO currently includes Hungary and Turkey. Can NATO survive with anti-democratic member states? When Syria collapses, Turkey will surely invade and try to take territory it claims as its own. Turkey will attack Syrian Kurds first.
Kurds by their actions are our best ally in the region. We betrayed and abandoned them in 1991 and 2018. Will we do it again?
I am currently living in Panama. In our hyper-connected world, I can watch the wars in Middle East and Ukraine on TV and my iPhone. I can also get news from home about America's accelerating descent into oligarchy. Rich, famous and shallow people will soon be in charge in Washington just as they were in Athens in 411 BCE when the oligarchy took over there.
The hero of the restoration of democracy in Athens was the general Thrasybulus. Will a great democratic leader emerge in the United States of America? Rome lost its Republic and remained under the rule of Caesars until its demise. Either path is very possible.
